Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

Environmental niche models utilize associations between environmental variables and known species distributions to define abiotic conditions within which populations can be maintained. Projection of modelled niches into new regions and under scenarios of future climate change enables the geographical distribution of suitable conditions to be predicted. This approach has been widely applied, including in studies investigating the potential impacts of climate change Department of Herpetology and Center for Biodiversity and Conservation, American Museum of Natural History, New York, NY, USA, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine UMR CNRS 5553 BP53, Grenoble Cedex 9, France, Biodiversity Research Group, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, Biogeography and Conservation Laboratory, The Natural History Museum, London, UK, Instituto de Biologı́a, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City, Mexico, Centre Tecnolòlogic Forestal de Catalunya, Pujada del Seminari s/n, Solsona, Catalunya, Spain, Environment Department, University of York, Heslington, York, UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambridge, UK, Unidade de Macroecologia e Conservação, Universidade de Évora, Estrada dos Leões, Évora, Portugal, Centre for the Study of Environmental Change and Sustainability, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK and Entomology Department, The Natural History Museum, London, UK